National and State Impact Analyses of the ACA on Insurance Prices and Enrollment Beyond 2014

Using the 2014 health insurance exchange enrollment data and a micro-simulation model funded in part by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, this working paper estimates the national and state impact of the ACA on insurance prices and enrollment from 2015-2024. Estimating the trajectory of health plan prices and enrollment is critical to informing ongoing health care policy debate. Decisions regarding the delayed implementation of the qualified health plan requirements, the delayed enforcement of the employer mandate, and the scheduled termination of the temporary reinsurance and risk corridor programs are estimated to have dramatic impact on insurance prices and enrollment by 2017.