What Will Be the Impact of the Employer Mandate on the U.S. Workforce?

The ACA’s employer mandate requires large firms to pay penalties unless they offer affordable health insurance coverage to full-time employees, raising concerns that employers might lay off workers or reduce hours. This brief estimates the number of workers potentially at risk of losing their jobs or having hours reduced. Fewer than 10 percent, less than 0.03 percent of the U.S. labor force, might see reductions in employment or hours in the short run. Over time, employment patterns might change, leading to fewer firm sizes and work schedules near the thresholds, potentially affecting up to 0.5 percent of the workforce.